BAGUIO CITY – PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration) has released its weather outlook for April to September 2025, highlighting key climate conditions in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and the rest of the Philippines. The forecast includes expected tropical cyclones, temperature trends, and rainfall patterns.
In a presentation during the Kapihan sa Bagong Pilipinas, hosted by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Engr. Hilario Esperanza, Chief Meteorological Officer of the PAGASA Baguio Synoptic Station, detailed the expected number of cyclones, temperature outlook, ENSO climate pattern, and rainfall projections.
From April to September, PAGASA predicts 8 to 14 tropical cyclones entering or developing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Specifically, zero to one cyclone is expected in April, one to two in May and June, and two to three in July, August, and September.
Regarding temperature trends, most parts of the Philippines are expected to experience warmer-than-average surface temperatures. Several areas in Luzon and Visayas may see significantly higher temperatures, exceeding 2.00°C above normal.
As for the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) climate pattern, most climate models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until the June-July-August (JJA) 2025 season, with a 62% likelihood. This means the Pacific Ocean is expected to remain in a neutral state, neither too warm like El Niño nor too cold like La Niña, until mid-2025.
Rainfall projections indicate varying conditions across the country. In April, Luzon and Visayas will experience near to below-normal rainfall, with some areas in Luzon seeing much drier conditions, while Mindanao will have mostly normal rainfall. In May, most of the country will receive above to very high rainfall, except for Davao and Cotabato, which will have near-normal levels. From June to September, rainfall across the country is expected to range from near-normal to below-normal.
Additionally, PAGASA announced that the tentative schedule for the 183rd Climate Forum is set for April 23, 2025.
With these forecasts, PAGASA urges the public to stay updated and prepared for potential weather changes that may impact various sectors, including agriculture, disaster response, and daily activities. By Gian Laddit
