When the Golden State Warriors acquired Kevin Durant at the start of the season and the Cleveland Cavaliers remained intact, it is a given that they would march to the NBA finals and met for the third consecutive time.
Realistically, aside from the San Antonio Spurs, only two other darkhorse teams can prevent this by engineering an earth-shaking trade that could involve both teams, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Clippers.
The ever-consistent Spurs are the most likely spoilers and will likely contend for the Western Conference title. They are just two games behind the Warriors for the conference best record but their line-up’s already been set and no changes are expected till trade deadline.
The Toronto Raptors and the Houston Rockets are both second in their respective conferences but cannot be considered serious threats to both the Cavs and Warriors.
As dynamic as the duo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are, their trio with Jonas Valancionas are still no match for Lebron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and the Cavs’ depth. Atlanta, on the other hand, showed some disinterest in challenging for the title by going a notch down in trading away shooter Kyle Korver to reinforce the Cavs themselves.
Ditto to the Rockets. James Harden is a big turnaround revelation this year but experience showed he cannot do the lifting alone. They would not move past the second round over the Warriors and the Spurs unless a drastic change in the line-up progresses before the trade deadline.
That leaves us with the two teams with realistic chance of upsetting the Cavs and the Warriors/Spurs, the Celtics for the East and the Clippers in the West.
The Celtics are at 26-18, just 4.5 games down of the Cavs for the best record in the East and just 1.5 games down of the Raptors for the Atlantic title.
Their line-up does not have a dominating superstar but they are a formidable line-up collectively. Isaiah Thomas had proven that he can be counted on to deliver the points in crunch time and is a deserving all-star. He leads the team in points, pouring 28.9 a night for the Men in Green.
Al Horford, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart ably support him with scattered contributions, from scoring double digits to proving the stifling defense that helps the Celts win games.
A lot of pundits are stating that they are just a superstar away from contending for the crown.
The Clippers have a big three of their own in Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. They started the season like a house on fire but again showing cracks as the season progresses. They currently have 30 wins and 17 losses, also good for third in the West like the Celtics are in the East.
Although injuries played a part of their slowing down, inconsistency is their biggest issue. They would blow out a contending team at one night and loss badly against a scrub team the next night.
It’s a simple case of not working well for the Clippers trio. This season marks the sixth year that they had been together, since Paul arrived for the 2011-12 season, and the best finish they can brag of is a 4-3 victory over the Spurs in the Western Conference first round and a 3-4 loss to the Houston Rockets in the semifinals of the 2014-15 playoffs. They lost in the first round twice during the span.
If both teams stand pat with their current line-ups, they would still make the playoffs but should not expect more than a conference finals appearance. If they would like improve their chances of going over the top drastically, they should work a trade to shake things and involve a third team, enter either the Sacramento Kings or the New York Knicks.
The perception that the Celtics need a superstar might be an off one considering what Thomas had become this season. Thomas showed he can be the face of the Celtics and all he needs is management to build the right pieces around him.
Accepting another body who would demand for the ball and dominate the game may disrupt whatever team chemistry they had developed over the course of the season with their equal sharing of responsibilities mentality.
What they need is somebody who would dominate the paint on the defensive end, someone who can protect the rim and get them more possessions from the defensive boards. Clipper DeAndre Jordan would fit that bill. The Celtics are currently 28th in total rebounds while 27th in defensive boards.
Trading Griffin or Paul by the Clippers may not bring them an equivalent value given the injuries these players had recently and during their careers. What they can trade for and get value is Jordan, and who to replace him better than the best big man in the league in Demarcus Cousins.
Cousins is a big risk, not because of his play on the court but his personality, something that the Clippers probably have an answer for.
They have one of the most respectable minds of the game in Doc Rivers, who is also a player’s coach and a “feed first” point guard in Paul. Cousins can also be a compatible complement to Griffin, who till this day, seems to love the perimeter a lot more instead of taking the ball to the paint despite his size.
Cousins never played for a coach like Rivers and a point guard like Paul so this might work to perfection.
The Kings, well, do not know how to utilize Cousins and is not going anywhere with their current line-up. Refusing to trade Cousins now will only diminish his trade value as time goes by. They need to start rebuilding their roster and there is no better way to do it than acquiring some of the ton of draft picks the Celtics can offer including a potential top five pick in the 2017 and 2018 drafts via the Brooklyn Nets.
In my swap, the Celtics will send Amir Johnson and Tyler Zeller to the Kings along with draft picks, and acquire Jordan and long-time resident superstar Paul Pierce from the Clippers, who would gets Cousins from the Kings.
If the trade is consummated, the Celtics will become a supreme defensive unit. With Jordan, Crowder, Bradley, and Smart, defense, which is a repeatedly, time-proven main ingredient of a championship, becomes their main calling card.
Offense should not be a problem because Thomas should still provide their main offensive weapon along with a trickle of scoring coming from various places including now points some from the paint courtesy of Jordan. The Celtics can add more offensive pieces in case an opportunity shows (Update: It could come from Nikola Vucecic).
Pierce is not the same 2008 player who won a championship in Boston anymore and is not expected to eat lots of playing time but his usefulness would be his ability to hit crucial baskets at crunch time, maybe even better than Thomas. This will help provide the end-game skills that Boston is still wanting. Boston will also have a chance to showcase him to hometown fans before he retires while realistically contending for a championship.
The Clippers may have lost the defensive presence in the paint that Jordan provides but the difference in offense gained would be like day and night. How they manage the risk would be the key for them but should be likely remedied by Doc and CP3.
The Kings will now slide further down the standings and will probably among the favorites for having the worst win-loss record this season. Having the two of the top five picks in the coming draft should be kicking their tires back to prominence faster than they would imagine.
Why not just a straight Celtics-Kings swap with Cousins going to Boston? Cousins would be a bad fit in Boston. The Celtics are relatively young and is devoid of a Kevin Garnett-type locker room voice that commands respect and deference. The Celtics coach, Brad Stevens, is also relatively young and has few NBA experience to show.
Nobody on the current Celtics, their coach included, could play a veteran’s voice for Cousins to defer to and Cousins repeatedly exhibited that he could not be the leading voice of a group in quest of the promise land.
If the Kings don’t like to bite the proposition, the Knicks might want to take their place.
Carmelo Anthony doesn’t seem to fit well in New York’s schemes and the organization was showing signs of letting him out the door. Anthony’s the one who’s refusing to leave and has a no-trade clause.
Among the circumstances that may change his mind is CP3 and Los Angeles. Playing with buddy Chris Paul at LA may just be the things that would sway his resistant stance to a trade out New York.
The Clippers will have to replace the lost piece at center but will dramatically improve their small forward slot.
These trades were tested by the ESPN Trade Machine and would go through.
(Update: The Celtics are considering bringing in Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic with the possibility of not losing their Brooklyn picks while the Clippers may not give up any of their big three to get Carmelo Anthony.
If the updated trades will occur and my proposed Cousins-Jordan-draft picks swaps will be consummated, you may be looking at the probable Warriors-Cavs party spoilers.
Imagine the Celtics now with Vucecic and Jordan along with their smalls against the Cavs. That would be an even match-up, especially with the paint offensive and defensive upgrades of the Celtics.
On the other hand, Cousins, Griffin, Anthony, J.J. Reddick, Jamal Crawford, or Austin Rivers, whoever would be the remaining shooting guard after the updated trades, and Chris Paul would form the Clippers first five against the Warriors. They may not have the defensive tools against the Warriors but their offense will surely give shudders against them.
One big problem might be the salary cap restrictions, especially in Carmelo’s case going to the Clippers. Let’s see if Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge can work something under the salary cap rules.)
BY: ARMANDO M. BOLISLIS.